How mini split sizing works
A ductless mini split has one outdoor unit and one indoor head per room (zone). Each head is sized to its own room, so the first step is the cooling load of every room. We use the ENERGY STAR room sizing chart and its adjustments: 10% more for very sunny rooms, 10% less for shaded ones, and 4,000 BTU more for kitchens.
Indoor heads
Wall heads are commonly sold in 6,000, 9,000, 12,000, 18,000 and 24,000 BTU sizes. Pick the next size up from the room's load. A head much bigger than the room cycles on and off and dehumidifies poorly.
Outdoor unit
For a single room, the outdoor unit comes matched to the head. For several rooms, the outdoor unit should cover the combined load. Many multi-zone systems allow the indoor heads to add up to somewhat more than the outdoor unit, because rooms rarely peak at the same time; check the maker's combination table for the exact pairings.
Heating with a mini split? Heat pump output drops in cold weather. If heat is the main job, check each unit's capacity at 5 °F, and size the rooms with the heating BTU calculator too.
This is an estimate for planning and shopping. Installers size systems with a Manual J load calculation, and that is what to use for a whole-house system.