How the tonnage estimate works
Central air conditioners and heat pumps are sold in tons: one ton removes 12,000 BTU of heat per hour. A quick, widely used way to estimate a whole home is cooling BTU per square foot, adjusted for climate:
- Hot (zone 1): about 30 BTU per sq ft, roughly 400 sq ft per ton.
- Warm (zone 2): about 25 BTU per sq ft, roughly 480 sq ft per ton.
- Mild (zone 3): about 22.5 BTU per sq ft, roughly 530 sq ft per ton.
- Cool (zone 4): about 20 BTU per sq ft, roughly 600 sq ft per ton.
- Cold (zone 5): about 18 BTU per sq ft, roughly 670 sq ft per ton.
We then adjust for insulation (+15% for a drafty older home, −10% for a tight newer one) and ceiling height, and round up to the next standard size: 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4 or 5 tons.
Use this to plan, not to sign. Rules of thumb often oversize systems. Before you buy, ask the installer for a Manual J load calculation; it frequently comes out smaller than the rule of thumb.
Why oversizing hurts
An oversized central system cools the house in short bursts, so it never runs long enough to pull moisture out of the air. You get a cold, clammy house, more wear on the compressor and higher bills. Undersizing shows up as a system that cannot keep up on the hottest afternoons.